英国学者警告：经济学正面临被边缘化的危险！

网络编辑财经 2020-08-17 21:33:08 0 历史模型经济

本文为网易研究局与罗汉堂联合出品的《新经济思维系列》文章，未经授权请勿转载

·聚焦国际思想市场·解析财经新闻热点·对话国际经济学大师

作者|罗伯特·斯基德尔斯基（英国华威大学政治经济学荣誉教授）

了解历史知识对经济学者来说非常重要

在过去的十年中，民粹主义重新抬头。它之所以被称为民粹主义，是因为想不出还有什么别的词可以形容它，但本质上是极端政治。所有抵制全球化的论调和历史告诉我们：最后一次全球化浪潮发生在19世纪末，以一场世界大战结束。我们现在所处的动乱有滑向大规模热战的危险吗？如果答案是肯定的，我们应该从过去的事件中吸取教训，如果我们上次误入歧途，那需要知道下次应该如何规避。

对于经济学的学生来说，知道自己所学理论的来源是尤为重要的。它何时来自哪个国家的什么地方？科学经济学在18世纪得以发展，为什么是在18世纪而不是14世纪？它是特定时代的产物，要理解它，还必须具备一些那个时代的背景知识。比如为什么这些教义在这个时候被宣扬？凯恩斯主义经济体系也是如此，为什么它会在1930年代出现？如果不知道那时候大规模的失业持续了数年，有人就可能觉得凯恩斯体系很莫名其妙。学生必须知道这件事，这样他们才能辨别教授教给他们的东西是真是假。学习这些模型——它们是关于世界运作方式最新、最好的解释。此外，还得多问几个“为什么”。为什么在100年前他们没有这种模型？为什么他们用的模型大不相同？为什么卡尔·马克思会成为一个伟大的思想家？工业革命时期到底发生了什么事？因此，从这些原因来看，历史知识非常重要。

经济学面临被边缘化的危险

至于经济思想史，学生们确实应该清楚，个中观点确实莫衷一是，从来没有一个大一统的论断。我觉得直到近期，经济学界才基本统一在单一的新古典主义模型上。但是纵观整个经济史，有各种各样的模型，那时其实还不叫模型，因为一旦被称为模型，理论研究基本就到头了。因为随着模型越来越偏离事实发展，经济学会面临被边缘化的危险，除非它能自我更新。而它更新的是10年前出错的地方，因为这是冷战后时代最骇人的经济事件，而经济学家的传统模型并没有捕捉到这一点，他们认为这是不可能的，也不知道该怎么办，现在他们声称一切都已经解决了。每个人都意识到并非如此，但我们还是很容易放松警惕。

历史非常重要，可悲的是经济学界对历史的关注越来越少，所以，我认为经济学家所面临的挑战在某种程度上已经发生了。虽然不是完全相同的形式，但它们确实存在。

我们可以学习前人们是如何处理这些问题的。但是要成为一个好的经济学家，你必须还要具备很多其他的东西：你必须具有历史观，将自己置身于历史环境；你必须给自己心理建设，摆脱经济学人的身份束缚“人形机器”；你还要掌握一些社会学知识，要知道人与人之间是相互联系的；你也要对政治有所了解，了解政权和势力关系。因此，这不仅仅是历史，还涉及到一系列的学科，也许可以省去一些技巧性的东西，因为很多技术只是锦上添花的装饰品。

所以我呼吁：再平衡！重新平衡经济学家的教育，少一点技巧，多一些其他方面的知识。

历史的伟大之处，在于它能让你置身于变化之中，瞬息万变的历史洪流裹挟着我们前进。我们要从这里到那里，但我们又到底在哪里？历史不会重演，但常常前后呼应。通过历史，我们可以开始意识到自身处境以及未来可能面临的挑战！

作者简介：罗伯特·斯基德尔斯基（Robert Skidelsky）：英国华威大学政治经济学荣誉教授。他的作品《凯恩斯传》获得了多个奖项，其中包括莱昂内尔·盖尔伯奖和美国外交关系协会奖。1991年，他获得终身贵族身份，1994年成为英国社会科学院院士。

English Version:

Through history we can see patterns of events and in the course of the last ten years, you've, had rise of populism. It's called populism because you can't think of anything else to call it but it is extremist politics. All attacking globalization and then history tells us that the last great wave of globalization which was in the late 19th centurythe last great wave of globalization which was in the late 19th century ended in a world war. Are we in danger of large hot wars as a result of the disturbance? If you're optimistic, we might learn from past events, if we fouled up last time, how not to foul up next time.

For students of economics it's extremely important to know where the doctrines they're studying came from. It's extremely important to know where the doctrines they're studying came from. Which country, which place and which time? Scientific economics grows in the 18th century. Why in the 18th century? Why not in the 14th century? It was located in a particular era and you have to know something about the circumstances of that era in order to understand why these doctrines were being proclaimed at this time. And similarly the Keynesian economics system. Why did it come about in the 1930's? Unless someone knows there was massive unemployment going on for years in that time, they might think it rather odd. Students have to know this thing so that they can resist the fib which their professors foist on them.so that they can resist the fib which their professors foist on them. Just learn these models. These models are the latest, best account we have of how the world works. Hey, wait a minute! Why didn't they have that model 100 years ago? Why did they have a different model? Why did Karl Marx arise as a major thinker? What was going on at the time of the Industrial Revolution? So, I think knowledge of history's incredibly important, for those reasons.

As for the history of economic ideas students should really be brought up against the fact that these ideas have been subject of dispute.that these ideas have been subject of dispute. There hasn't ever been a single idea It's only now, I think, that the economics profession has coagulatedon a single, a single Neoclassical Model. But throughout the history of economic there were a variety of models. They weren't called models then. In fact, once their called models that's the end of the, that's the end of the road, really. Because as the models become less and less congruent with the facts so I think the danger, the risk is that economics comes to be seen irrelevant. Unless it can renew itself and the signal for it's renewal has to be what went wrong 10 years ago.

Because this was the biggest economic horror story of the post-war years. And the models of the economist didn't capture it. They didn't think it was possible. They didn't know what to do about it. Now they claim everything's been fixed. But everyone realizes it really hasn't actually been fixed, and that we're liable to sort of relax.

History is very, very important and the tragedy is they do less and less history now. So, I think the challenge is, which economists face, Has already happened in a way. In not the exactly the same form but they've been there.

And we can learn how people previously tried to deal with them. But to be a good economist you have to have lots of things. You have to have history to be able to locate yourself in the past. You have to have psychology in order to get away from this ludicrous image of economic man. The human robot. You have to know some sociology in order to understand that humans are linked to each other. You have to know something about politics in order to understand power. So, it's not just history. It's a range of things. And maybe reduce the technique a bit because a lot of the technique is simply window dressing cosmetics. Just to say, Look I can do it! Aren't I wonderful? But I don't know anything else but I can do the technique.

Rebalance! Rebalance the education of the economist. Rebalance the education of the economist. A bit less technique A bit more of the other stuff.

You know the great thing about history is it enables you to locate yourself in the flux. Events are in flux the whole time we're going from here to there. Where exactly are we located? History doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes. Say you start to recognize where you are and what challenges might lie ahead.

出品方简介：

罗汉堂于2018年6月26日在杭州成立，是由阿里巴巴倡议，并由社会科学领域全球顶尖学者共同发起的开放型研究机构。罗汉堂首批学术委员会委员以经济学家为主，包括6位诺贝尔经济学奖得主。罗汉堂将携手更多的全球社会科学家和实践者，研究数字技术对经济和社会的影响，深刻理解并主动参与这一变革。罗汉堂的研究服务全社会，应对最重要的全球挑战，并着眼于人类社会的长期发展。

新经济思维研究所（INET）创建于金融危机之后的2009年，是一个非盈利研究机构，致力于研究和分享改善现有经济体系的新思想，从而创建一个更加繁荣公正的社会。

网易研究局（微信公号：wyyjj163）出品

网易研究局是网易新闻打造的财经专业智库，整合网易财经原创多媒体矩阵，依托于上百位国内外顶尖经济学家的智慧成果，针对经济学热点话题，进行理性、客观的分析解读，打造有态度的前沿财经智库。欢迎来稿（投稿邮箱：[email protected]）。